ManpowerGroup has run its Talent Shortage Survey since 2006, every year except 2017 and 2020. The 2025 edition surveyed 40,413 employers in 42 countries in October 2024. 74% said they had difficulty finding the skilled talent they need. That is not a record: the survey's high is 77%, in 2023. The 2026 edition, 39,063 employers in 41 countries, puts the figure at 72%.
In Gartner's 2027 CIO and Technology Executive Survey, published in August 2026, 44% of CIOs cite insufficient technical talent as a major concern for adopting and scaling AI. Korn Ferry's 2018 forecast projects a global talent shortage of more than 85 million people by 2030 across the 20 economies it studied.
I run an engineering studio with 35-50 senior engineers. We exist because of these numbers. When a company cannot hire fast enough, they call someone like us.
The Numbers
ManpowerGroup (2025, n=40,413): 74% of employers globally reported difficulty filling roles. IT and data skills were the hardest to find, named by 26% of employers, ahead of engineering (22%) and sales and marketing (21%). In the 2026 edition AI skills lead the list and IT and data skills fall to seventh place (17%).
Gartner: In its 2027 CIO and Technology Executive Survey, published in August 2026, 44% of CIOs cite insufficient technical talent as a major concern for adopting and scaling AI. In a 2021 Gartner survey of 437 IT organizations, IT executives saw the talent shortage as the most significant barrier to adopting 64% of emerging technologies, compared with 4% in 2020.
Indeed Hiring Lab (July 2026): US software development job postings were about 27.5% below their pre-pandemic level, after rising almost 15% since late February 2025, and 71% of the increase from May 2025 to May 2026 came from senior roles. Hiring is slow all the same: Ashby's 2026 data shows a median 75 days from opening a technical role to the hire, and we estimate about 95 days to the first day.
Developer population: depending on the definition, there are 21 to 36.5 million professional software developers in the world (JetBrains 2025; SlashData 2025). In the US, CompTIA counted 2.5 million employer job listings for tech occupations in the 12 months its 2025 State of the Tech Workforce covers.
Why the Shortage Persists
AI was supposed to fix this. Every tech publication in 2024 predicted that AI coding tools would close the talent gap by making developers more productive. What actually happened?
Developers adopted AI tools (84% use or plan to use them, per Stack Overflow's 2025 survey). But they did not become dramatically more productive. METR's rigorous study found that AI tools made experienced developers 19% slower on unfamiliar codebases. GitHub's own research showed 55% faster task completion on isolated coding exercises, not on production systems with complex dependencies, code review requirements, and deployment pipelines.
The productivity gains from AI tools are real but modest. They help with boilerplate and documentation. They do not replace the judgment, architecture knowledge, and domain expertise that takes years to develop. The shortage is for experienced engineers, not for people who can write code.
What the Shortage Costs
The cost is not abstract. It is measurable in delayed projects, missed market windows, and opportunity cost.
Time-to-hire: about 95 days from opening a senior role to the first day, by our estimate. That is 3 months where the role is open and the work is not getting done. For a startup with 18 months of runway, losing 3 months to hiring is 17% of the runway spent waiting.
Offer rejection: In Gartner's survey for the second quarter of 2025, 51% of job candidates had accepted their most recent offer, down from 74% two years earlier. Gartner's release gives no figure for engineers. For technical roles, Ashby's hiring records show 73% of offers accepted from January 2021 through March 2024. When an offer is declined, the clock starts again.
Replacement cost: We estimate the cost of replacing a senior engineer at $150,000-$250,000 when you factor in recruiting, interviewing, onboarding, ramp-up, and the productivity gap during the transition. 24% of developers report being unhappy at work, and 92% plan to look for a new job within a year.
Delayed delivery: Every unfilled engineering position is a feature not shipped, a bug not fixed, a customer not served. McKinsey found that companies with talent shortages experience 45% average cost overruns on IT projects, partly because they staff projects with whoever is available, not who is best suited.
If the model itself is still fuzzy, start with our full breakdown of when staff augmentation is worth it. And when you want to see how we structure engagements around retention, our staffing services lay it out.
The Retained Team Alternative
The shortage is real. It is not going away. The question is how you work around it.
Full-time hiring takes 95 days, and the offer can still be declined. Contract marketplaces give you bodies, not engineers. Offshore factories give you low rates and low quality.
The model that works for our clients is retained engineering teams. Not freelancers. Not an outsourcing shop. A team of senior engineers who join your organization, use your tools, attend your standups, and stay for years.
Snapwire embedded 10 of our engineers into their 30-person team for 2.5 years. They were one-third of the engineering organization. Same sprints, same codebase, same code review process.
HeyTutor relied on our team for 9 years. Our co-founder served as de facto CTO. The team scaled up and down with the business but the core stayed constant.
Greek House came to us after their previous team stalled. We started shipping same-day releases within weeks of joining. Four years later: Inc. 5000 recognition and an acquisition.
These engagements work because the team is stable. The engineers learn the domain, the codebase, and the business. They do not rotate out after 6 months. They stay because the work is interesting and the relationship is long-term.
Our rates are $50-99/hour. That is below US market rates ($150-$250/hour) but above commodity offshore rates ($25-$40/hour). The rate reflects senior engineers in Ukraine with European timezone overlap and 5+ hours of US business day coverage.
The shortage is not going to fix itself. If you need engineers now, the choice is: wait 95 days and hope, or start working in 2-3 weeks with a retained team.
Last updated November 12, 2026